16.07.2024
Study
Climate change threatens one third of food-producing regions
New study highlights the global regions that will be most affected by climate change – and, alarmingly, they are the ones least able to adapt
Researchers from Aalto University in Finland have studied the projected impact on our future food production capacity if carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase at the current rate. Despite the general recognition that climate change is not only real, but is also having a negative impact on agriculture and livestock, little is known about which geographic regions are most affected and to what extent.
Published in One Earth, the scientists released results for two scenarios: one in which carbon dioxide emissions are drastically reduced, limiting global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius; and another in which emissions continue on their current course. Reflecting on this second projection, Matti Kummu, professor of global water and food issues at Aalto University, said: “Our study shows that rapid, uncontrolled growth in greenhouse gas emissions could lead to more than a third of current global food production falling into conditions in which no food is produced today, i.e. outside the safe climate space, by the end of the century.
However, he offers reasons for optimism if we can collectively control our carbon emissions. “The good news is that only a small fraction of food production will face unprecedented conditions if we collectively reduce emissions so that warming is limited to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius,” says Kummu.
Changes in precipitation and aridity, as well as climate warming, are particularly threatening to food production in South and Southeast Asia, as well as in the Sahel region of Africa – unfortunately, these are areas that do not have the capacity to adapt to changing conditions.
“Food production as we know it has evolved in a fairly stable climate, during the period of slow warming that followed the last ice age. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions could create new conditions, and food crop and livestock production simply won’t have enough time to adapt,” says doctoral student Matthias Heino, another lead author of the publication.
The researchers assessed how climate change will affect 27 of the most important food crops and seven livestock species, taking into account the different capacities of societies to adapt to change. The results show that the threats affect countries and continents differently; in only 52 of the 177 countries studied will entire food production areas remain in a safe climate space in the future. This includes Finland and most other European countries.
Already vulnerable countries such as Benin, Cambodia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana and Suriname will be severely impacted if no changes are made; up to 95 percent of current food production will fall outside the safe climate space. Worryingly, these countries also have a much lower capacity to adapt to the changes caused by climate change compared to rich Western countries. In total, 20 percent of the world’s crop production and 18 percent of its livestock production at risk are concentrated in countries with low resilience to adapt to change.